We are making new all-time highs in the S&P 500, in the NASDAQ, in the Russell, everything banging to new highs. If you haven't been watching the markets for the last six weeks, you've missed a massive rally.
The question becomes: where do we focus? How do we make some money off this rally?
The easiest way is to see exactly where the dollars are flowing. Find which groups are leading the rally, because that's where more often than not you're going to find your big winners. Right now, the dollars are flowing into quantum computing stocks.
Why Are Quantum Computing Stocks Leading the Market Right Now?
The semiconductor sector has been the dominant player in this rally since the beginning of April, but those stocks are very, very much extended and due for a pullback. Quantum computing is showing a lot of strength and has a history of making really big moves.
Semiconductors are a leading group over one, two, and three months. They've carried the market higher. But they are long in the tooth. You don't want to buy into a sector stretched to its absolute limit.
Quantum computing stocks have a proven history of delivering outsized returns. We made triple-digit gains multiple times on stocks in this exact sector last year, and the goal is to do the same thing right now.
The QTUM ETF Is Extended
QTUM is the Defiance Quantum ETF, an exchange-traded fund made up of quantum stocks. It's currently up 40% off its March 31st lows, which makes it look pretty extended at these levels.
Buying an extended ETF is not the optimal play here. When a fund is up 40% in a straight line, the easy money on the broad index has already been made. You have to look under the hood. You have to separate the broad fund performance from the individual components.
The QTUM ETF tells us the sector has extreme momentum. But we need better entry points to maximize upside.
Pure-Play Stocks Are Still Basing
While the broad ETF is extended, the individual pure-play quantum stocks are still building bases off their lows. This creates a massive discrepancy.
You look at the broad sector strength, then drill down to the individual names that haven't popped yet. Most of these pure-play companies are sitting near the bottom of their charts. They're consolidating. They're preparing for their own moves to catch up with the broader ETF.
D-Wave Quantum, QBT (Rigetti), and IonQ are all basing off their lows. These are going to be huge setups going forward.
D-Wave is forming a nice little cup with handle pattern off the low. It's not the stock I'm buying today, but if it breaks through the $22 area on volume in the next couple of days, it's going to be a great trade. Stop at 20, see if you can run it into the low 30s. That's the exact risk-to-reward ratio we want.
How Do You Spot the Leading Quantum Computing Stocks?
To identify which quantum computing stocks will lead the breakout, you look for specific technical formations. You want stocks that have collapsed, built a rounded bottom base, consolidated off the lows, and are now breaking through resistance on above-average volume.
This is not guesswork. It's strict pattern recognition. Here's exactly what to look for before putting capital at risk:
1. Wait for the Rounded Bottom
You don't catch a falling knife. You wait for the stock to stop going down and start building a rounded bottom base. The price action must shallow out.
2. Identify the Cup with Handle
This pattern shows consolidation and tightening price action before a major move. It tells us the selling pressure has dried up.
3. Demand Volume on the Breakout
A breakout through resistance means nothing without above-average volume. Volume confirms that institutional dollars are flowing into the trade.
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Join my Black Ops Trading ClubWhy Is QMCO a Buy Right Now?
Quantum Corporation (ticker QMCO) stands apart because it's breaking out through resistance on above-average volume right now. The stock absolutely collapsed in late 2025 from $15 down to $4, built a rounded bottom base, and formed a cup with handle pattern.
While it's not an absolutely perfect setup, it's got a really nice cup with handle formed. The price action is exactly what you want to see. About 40 minutes before the market close, the stock started breaking out through resistance on above-average volume.
Managing Risk on Breakouts
When a stock gives you an initial burst after three to five days, you sell half your position to take profits. At the same time, you raise your stop loss to your break-even entry price to completely derisk the trade.
If you bought the stocks I recommended recently, you're doing pretty well. We got into Sigma Lithium (SGML) at $20. It moved up to $22.50, and hit $23.50. Green Plains (GPRE) is also making a nice breakout on the top side.
Here's exactly how I executed this strategy today:
Green Plains (GPRE): I bought this stock around $16.70. I sold 600 of my 1,200 shares in the $18s, took those profits at the market. Then I raised the stop loss on the remaining 600 shares to my exact entry price. Worst-case scenario: I break even on the other half.
Sigma Lithium (SGML): Same process. Sold 500 of my 1,000 shares at the market. Then raised the stop loss to break even on the remaining position.
This process completely derisks the trade. You lock in gains and eliminate the downside on the remaining shares.
The Backdoor SpaceX Play
IperionX (ticker IPX) is a smaller stock setting up as a backdoor SpaceX play. The company benefits from a bottleneck involving SpaceX, which is a huge thematic play right now. The stock had a big sell-off from $60 down to $20 but is now shallowing out nicely.
This one could be really exciting. A similar backdoor SpaceX setup was recently recommended and saw a massive move, doubling 30 minutes into the market on a Monday morning. IPX has a very similar rounded bottom formation on a technical basis. The price has come in, it has tightened, and it's shallowing out.
The Bottom Line
The market is ripping, and the dollars are flowing. You can't simply buy extended semiconductor stocks and expect the same massive returns we saw in April. You have to follow the capital into new bases and fresh breakouts.
Quantum computing stocks are showing the exact strength and basing patterns we want to see. By targeting pure-play companies breaking out of rounded bottoms, taking profits on initial bursts, and keeping stop losses tight, we position ourselves for massive upside with strictly managed risk.
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Key Takeaways
- Semiconductors have led the market rally over one, two, and three months but are now overextended, making them poor risk/reward buys at current levels.
- Quantum computing stocks are forming rounded bottom basing patterns, which historically precede the sector's largest moves, including multiple triple-digit gains from the same sector last year.
- The strategy targets pure-play quantum computing companies still in base formation rather than the QTUM ETF, which is already extended.
- The trade plan calls for taking profits on initial price bursts and keeping stop losses tight to capture upside while managing downside on volatile names.
- QMCO is the specific stock call identified as a current buy, with the thesis built around its pure-play exposure and early-stage breakout setup.
DISCLAIMER: Traders Agency does not offer financial advice. The information provided is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Traders Agency is not responsible for any financial losses or consequences resulting from the use of the information provided. Trading carries inherent risks and may not be suitable for all individuals. You are advised to conduct your own research and seek personalized advice before making any investment decisions, recognizing the potential risks and rewards involved.