Stock Market Today: Futures Await PCE, NVDA

The U.S. stock market today is holding its breath. With the July personal consumption expenditures price index dropping Wednesday morning and Nvidia (NVDA) reporting after the bell, we're watching a combination of macro data and mega-cap earnings that could set the tone for the rest of the week. Stock futures are showing mixed signals, and our team is positioned to act once the data clears.

What's Happening in Pre-Market Trading?

Reports diverge on exactly how futures are trading ahead of the opening bell. One set of data shows futures near flat, while another source cites a climb in early positioning. We're watching primary data feeds to confirm actual momentum before committing to directional bias.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures showed early movement, with one report citing a 199-point jump (0.4%) while another noted a slight dip of 0.02%, or 11 points. This mixed picture extends to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures: one source reports S&P 500 futures rising 0.4% and Nasdaq 100 futures advancing 0.8%, while another describes S&P 500 futures as little changed and Nasdaq-100 futures rising nearly 0.1%.

These conflicting reports highlight the uncertainty right now. Traders watching live charts will see conflicting early indicators depending on their data source. We rely on verified price action once the regular session begins to dictate our trading plans.

Recent Index Performance: Tech Under Pressure

The recent price action tells a clear story of defensive positioning in the tech sector. Over the past 10 days, the SPY ETF dropped 1.19%, while the tech-heavy QQQ ETF fell 3.23%. Conversely, the TLT Treasury bond ETF gained 1.49%. The DIA ETF remains relatively flat with a 0.10% decline over the same period.

Looking at the previous regular trading sessions, the major averages are coming off a winning day, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.3% and the Nasdaq Composite advancing 0.7%. The Dow climbed 160.24 points (0.3%), marking its third consecutive positive day.

However, Monday's session saw the S&P 500 slip 0.28% and the Nasdaq Composite drop 0.76%, pressured by weakness in semiconductors and technology shares, while the Dow managed a gain of 140.15 points (0.26%).

What Inflation Data and Earnings Are Markets Watching Today?

The July personal consumption expenditures price index is set to release Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect a month-over-month increase of 0.1% and a year-over-year increase of 3.6%. This follows the June report, which noted a decrease of 0.1% on a monthly basis and a 3.7% increase on an annual basis.

On the corporate side, Nvidia (NVDA) is scheduled to report its second-quarter earnings Wednesday after the closing bell. Wall Street projects earnings per share of $2.09 on $92.28 billion in revenue, according to FactSet.

How Could This Affect the Market?

The combination of inflation data and tech earnings creates a high-probability environment for sudden price swings. If inflation runs hotter than expected or Nvidia misses its revenue targets, we could see a pullback in equities and increased demand for Treasury bonds.

The Trump administration's moves to hold down long-term interest rates have revived talk of a dollar debasement trade. This has had a clear impact on cryptocurrency. Bitcoin crossed above $80,000 for the first time since May, surging more than 20% over the past seven days. The Wall Street Journal, citing data provider SoSo Value, reported that the iShares Bitcoin ETF recorded net inflows for six consecutive sessions through Monday.

In the commodities sector, Brent crude oil has retreated to around $88 per barrel. Meanwhile, Canada's government is set to reveal retaliatory measures against U.S. tariffs on Tuesday morning, following President Trump's announcement that Washington would place 50% duties on Canadian vehicles and auto parts as of January.

How Are Treasury Yields Affecting Global Markets Right Now?

U.S. Treasury yields hit multiyear highs last week before retreating. The 10-year Treasury yield recently dropped more than 3 basis points to 4.666%. The 30-year bond rate reached levels not seen in nearly 20 years before yields fell broadly on Tuesday, with the 10-year yield losing almost 8 basis points on the day.

CNBC reported that the Treasury Department may tap its roughly $1 trillion General Account to finance a ramp-up in government bond purchases, which could explain part of the yield retreat.

Overseas markets are broadly higher. Japan's Nikkei 225 finished up 0.5%, South Korea's Kospi added 0.68%, and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 climbed 0.68%. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 was trading 0.3% higher. China's CSI 300 was the exception, edging down 0.24%.

What Should Traders Watch After the PCE Report and Nvidia Earnings?

Our team is tracking several specific events that will dictate the next major market move. Here's what we're focused on:

1. The PCE Price Index Release

The Wednesday morning inflation print will set the tone for the trading day. Since this is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation metric, the results will directly impact expectations for the central bank's September meeting. We're watching for any deviation from the expected 3.6% year-over-year increase. A cooler reading could strengthen the case for the Fed to continue holding rates steady, while a hotter number could reignite concerns about further tightening.

2. Nvidia's Earnings Call

The Wednesday afternoon earnings release from NVDA is the main event for tech traders. We're focused on the $92.28 billion revenue projection. The report could be a bellwether for the broader market, given the company's $5 trillion-plus market cap as the largest S&P 500 member.

3. Jackson Hole Symposium

Investors are eyeing Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's speech on Friday at the Fed's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Kurt Lewis, head of central bank policy at Piper Sandler, wrote to clients that Warsh could remain tight-lipped about the immediate economic outlook ahead of September. Lewis expects Warsh to spend the bulk of his remarks on big-picture themes with an emphasis on the supply side rather than providing a deep dive into the current economic outlook and its implications for policy over the balance of 2026.

Our Bottom Line

The stock market today presents a complex web of macroeconomic and corporate variables. UBS strategists have told clients to stay invested as the equity rally broadens, arguing that strong corporate profits should underpin global equity markets despite the drag from elevated yields. Our team is maintaining a defensive posture until the inflation data and Nvidia earnings provide clearer directional signals. We're watching bond yields and the tech sector closely to determine our next moves.