The S&P 500 today is pushing higher as the entire market braces for what could be the most important earnings report of the quarter. Nvidia (NVDA) reports after the bell, and our team believes the results will set the tone for tech stocks, AI sentiment, and broader risk appetite for weeks to come. Here's what we're watching right now.
Where Are the Major Indices Trading Today?
Bottom Line: Nvidia's earnings report is the single variable that will define near-term direction for tech stocks and AI sentiment. With the QQQ still in negative territory over 10 days and macro headwinds intact, traders should treat today's rally as positioning noise rather than a trend signal. Discipline over conviction is the call until the post-earnings picture clears.
US stocks are climbing as traders position ahead of Nvidia's first-quarter numbers. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) has gained between 0.2% and 0.7% in recent trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) is fluctuating between flat and up 317 points, or 0.6%.
What Happened to the Nasdaq Today?
The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rose between 0.5% and 1.1% today as semiconductor stocks bounced back from recent sell-offs. Tech shares gained momentum as oil prices declined and bond yields cooled slightly. Our data shows the QQQ ETF has a 10-day price change of -1.04%, which tells us today's tech rally is a brief reprieve from recent downward pressure, not necessarily a trend reversal.
Chipmakers like Intel (INTC), Micron (MU), and AMD (AMD) extended their bounce in premarket trading. Investors are stepping back into memory and storage stocks following heavy profit-taking. Arm Holdings (ARM) and Marvell (MRVL) also posted premarket gains.
How Will Nvidia Earnings Affect the Market?
Nvidia's earnings will dictate the near-term direction of the entire market by confirming or denying the strength of artificial intelligence demand. This is the single most important data point of the week.
The Key Number: Options markets are pricing in a massive 5.5% move for NVDA shares in either direction following the report. With the stock up almost 21% this year and more than 1,400% over the last five years, the stakes are enormous.
The chipmaker is the world's most valuable company and serves as the primary gauge for Big Tech capital spending. Traders are looking for any signs of margin compression caused by rising memory prices and how the company is handling sales in China. A strong report could relieve the heavy pressure currently weighing on growth stocks.
Treasury Yields and Macro Pressures
The global bond sell-off has pushed yields to levels not seen in almost two decades, and this is the backdrop every equity trader needs to understand right now. The 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) recently hit 4.687%, while the 30-year yield (^TYX) briefly topped 5.19%. Current levels sit at 4.65% and 5.18%, respectively, both remaining above the psychological levels of 4.5% and 5%.
These elevated rates are directly pressuring equities. Our verified market data shows the TLT ETF is down -2.34% over the last 10 days. Higher yields make growth and tech stocks less attractive to investors as the risk-free rate climbs. The broader SPY ETF shows a 10-day price change of just -0.09%, reflecting a market that's treading water under macro strain.
Oil prices are adding another layer of complexity to the inflation picture. Brent crude is trading around $107 to $109 per barrel, and WTI crude sits near $100 to $102. The ongoing war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continue to drive energy costs higher, raising concerns that sticky inflation could force the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates.
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Join Traders AgencyRetail Strength and Software Layoffs
Beyond tech, we're tracking major shifts in the retail and software sectors that paint a mixed picture of the broader economy.
Retail Bright Spot: Target (TGT) delivered a massive first-quarter blowout, reporting a $0.28 earnings beat with broad-based sales increases across beauty, hardlines, and food departments. Lowe's (LOW) also beat expectations on the top and bottom lines.
On the other side, Intuit (INTU) is cutting approximately 17% of its global workforce, or roughly 3,000 employees. The financial software company is restructuring operations and increasing its focus on artificial intelligence. INTU shares are down roughly 38% year to date.
Intuit joins a growing list of companies announcing layoffs, with some pointing to efficiency gains from artificial intelligence as a contributing factor. We've seen similar moves from Block (XYZ), Meta (META), Amazon (AMZN), and Coinbase (COIN). This is a trend our team is watching closely: in our view, AI is creating demand for chips while simultaneously reducing headcount in software. The investment implications are significant.
The SpaceX IPO Pipeline
We're also monitoring the upcoming initial public offering for SpaceX (SPAX.PVT). The rocket company is targeting a record-breaking $75 billion IPO. That valuation would dwarf the $29.4 billion Saudi Aramco (2223.SR) offering from 2019.
Goldman Sachs (GS) shares ticked up 1% in premarket trading following news that the bank will take the lead-left position on the prospectus. Morgan Stanley (MS) is also expected to act as a lead bank, while JPMorgan (JPM), Citigroup (C), and Bank of America (BAC) are expected to participate in the offering.
SpaceX plans to acquire the AI coding startup Cursor for $60 billion roughly 30 days after going public. If the deal falls through, SpaceX faces a $10 billion breakup fee.
What Should Traders Watch After Nvidia Earnings?
Our research team is focused on several immediate signals that will dictate price action for the rest of the week:
- Nvidia's Forward Guidance: The actual earnings numbers matter less than the company's projections for future AI hardware demand. This is where the real market-moving information will come from.
- Federal Reserve Minutes: The April meeting minutes will reveal the depth of the differences among policymakers on the path of rates.
- Oil Price Fluctuations: A sharp drop in oil prices is required to stop interest rates from moving higher. Energy is the wildcard in the inflation equation right now.
- Key Bond Levels: We're watching to see if the 10-year yield stays above 4.5% and the 30-year stays above 5%. A sustained break above these levels would put additional pressure on equities.
Our Take
The market is holding its breath for the Nvidia report. Current sentiment data shows the Fear & Greed index at 68, with WallStreetBets sentiment sitting at 0.03 across 2,748 mentions. We believe the combination of tech earnings, sticky inflation, and elevated bond yields will create significant volatility in the days ahead.
Our Position: We're keeping position sizes manageable until the post-earnings trend establishes itself. The risk-reward setup demands discipline here, not conviction bets ahead of a binary event.
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Join Traders AgencyKey Takeaways
- The S&P 500 gained between 0.2% and 0.7% ahead of Nvidia's post-bell earnings report, with the Nasdaq rising 0.5% to 1.1% on semiconductor strength.
- The QQQ ETF carries a 10-day price change of -1.04%, signaling today's tech bounce is a relief rally within a recent downtrend, not a confirmed reversal.
- Chipmakers including Intel, Micron, AMD, Arm Holdings, and Marvell all posted premarket gains as investors returned to memory and storage stocks after heavy profit-taking.
- The Fear and Greed Index sits at 68, while WallStreetBets sentiment registers just 0.03 across 2,748 mentions, suggesting cautious retail positioning ahead of a binary event.
- The trading team is keeping position sizes small until a post-earnings trend establishes itself, citing sticky inflation and elevated bond yields as compounding volatility risks.
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