This week’s idea comes from the E-mini Russell 2000. Let’s just go ahead and delete everything and we’ll start fresh. So ultimately when you turn on your computer and you are trying to identify an opportunity, there’s really three things that the market does. The market goes up, the market goes down, or the market U-turns. If the market’s going up, great, we’ll focus on buying. If the market’s going down, even better, we’ll focus it on selling.
Because inside the futures market, you can make the same amount of money when market goes up as when the market goes down and vice versa. The key is really to focus in on where does the market form highs, where does market form lows, and you can do that by just simply drawing hand drawn trend line. So you’ll notice that when we draw our trend lines from the bottom, what we’re really trying to do is we’re just trying to find where the market traditionally forms U-turn. So you can see the market usually forms lows at on and around the bottom blue level. And you can see at the top blue level market does the same exact thing, right? So market comes to the top level forms, highs at on and around the top blue level.
So there’s a high, there’s a high, there’s a high. So according to this basic pattern, this market may decide to increase and that will be a 2000 plus tick rally. If the market increases by 2000 plus ticks, if you trade with the full E-mini contract, every tick’s worth about $5. It’s a $10,000 US dollar buying opportunity. If you trade a micro, it’s about a $1000 US dollar buying opportunity because every tick’s worth about 50 cents. Now, remember the markets U-turn at, on, and around the same price points. And one of the things that I like to do, which you may want to try your best to do, is whenever you think it’s time to buy or time to sell, you may just want to put a line on the market and just kind of look left. I call it looking left simply because if you’re buying where the market traditionally forms highs, you should probably wait for the market to get above that price point.
So for example, you’ll notice how the market and these are daily count six, the mark formed a high, formed a daily high, formed a daily high, formed a daily high. Look how the market’s starting to U-turn, look how we back up and we just kind of follow this by looking left, looking from right to left. There’s a U-turn, there’s a U-turn, there’s a U-turn, there’s a U-turn, there’s a U-turn. And one of the things what you’re going to notice when you begin to trade is that the markets really do a good job at forming highs and lows at, on, and around the same price points to where you can begin to depend on them. And let me specifically share with you what I’m referring to. So watch what happens when the market comes near this pink line. The market forms a high, falls 1000 ticks. The market closes above, and then rallies 1000 ticks.
The pink line
So obviously decisions are being made around this pink line. And so if the market is unable to close below it, you can see it rallies up 1000 ticks. If the market is able to close below, it falls 1000 ticks. And so this is a decision line. See how the market was unable to close below it, look how it rallied up 1000 ticks. So what that means is you really cannot make a decision in the market while you’re on the line. You have to wait until it closes. Because you can see here, the market was trending below while the counting was open, but closed above it and that caused the push. Let’s keep going. And you’ll notice whenever the mark comes near this pink line, right around 1450, decisions are being made.
So look at this low, okay? 1000 tick rally. Here’s another low, 1000 tick rally. And now look, see how we close below it? Okay? Now this is clear evidence that we’re probably going to have a break. Boom, look how the market falls, at least 1000 ticks. Okay, so see how we’re right here? In here, I’ll be looking to sell the market, but now look how we’re back above it. So now that we’re back above it, we’ll probably going to rally. Then there’s the rally. So a little bit of a false reversal, but that’s okay. But the key of sharing this information with you is there’s areas in the market where the market forms highs and lows at, on, and around the same price points. You can see here, there’s another low, there’s another low, and these are big rallies. Here’s another low, there’s another low. Let’s keep going.
Don’t buy below the pink line
Now you may say this is all hindsight. Sure, that’s fine. But it doesn’t erase the fact that the market is using this level to make major decisions off of. Look how it closes below and the here comes the big old bear brake. Okay. So bring it up to the live market here we currently are. So for me, knowing that the market has a major level U-turn on this pink line, we’re going to call this 1450s. We’re going to say daily resistance is going to be 1450.00. I don’t want to buy the market below this pink line. Because for me, if it closes below the pink line, it could fall 1000 ticks. So I’m very hesitant with buying the market right now. Instead, I’m going to wait for this market to close above 1450 to increase my odds of success.
And more than likely, I’m going to get at least 1000 tick push before the next pullback. Right? So in this scenario, I’m going to wait patiently for the market to close about 1450. Then I’m going to focus in on buying the market, bullish towards the North for at least 1000 ticks. You can go to the one-hour timeframe, use current trend line breaks, bullish, Fibonacci’s, counseling formations, tonal trade long, destination trade long. Realistically, anything you want to utilize is for me, the green light’s going to be above 1450. All right everyone, this Josh Martinez. That’s this week’s idea and I’ll see you next week.