The S&P 500 is grinding toward its eighth consecutive weekly gain, and our research team is watching this setup closely. The S&P 500 weekly winning streak has pushed index futures higher in early Friday trading even as bond yields surged to levels not seen since before the financial crisis. The question on every trader's mind: can this streak survive the pressure?
How Long Has the S&P 500 Weekly Winning Streak Lasted?
The S&P 500 is up 0.5% week to date, positioning it to close out its eighth straight positive week. If the index holds these levels through Friday's close, it will mark the longest winning streak since a nine-week run ended in late 2023.
Here's where futures stood in early Friday trading:
- S&P 500 futures gained 0.18%
- Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 124 points, or 0.25%
- Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.27%
The broader trend confirms this momentum. The SPY ETF has posted a +4.22% gain over the past 30 days. The Dow has added 1.5% this week, heading for its third positive week in four, while the DIA ETF shows a +1.11% 30-day return.
Streak Watch: The S&P 500 is on pace for 8 consecutive weekly gains, its longest winning streak since late 2023.
Can the S&P 500 Keep Rising With Treasury Yields Above 5%?
Rising Treasury yields typically pressure equities by increasing borrowing costs and offering investors higher risk-free returns. Right now, the 30-year Treasury yield has climbed above 5.19%, reaching its highest level since before the financial crisis, before pulling back to 5.09%.
This spike is creating real volatility in the bond market. The TLT ETF, which tracks long-term Treasuries, has dropped -3.26% over the past 30 days. Yet equity markets are absorbing the higher rates without breaking down. We see this as a sign of underlying market resilience, though how long equities can shrug off yields at these levels remains an open question.
Tech Sector Leading the Charge
The technology sector continues to power the broader market recovery. The Nasdaq Composite has added 0.3% this week, putting it on pace for its seventh weekly advance in the past eight weeks. The QQQ ETF is up a staggering +8.86% over the last 30 days.
The outperformance of the QQQ relative to the broader S&P 500 and Dow tells us that growth and tech names are doing the heavy lifting in this rally. We're watching whether this concentration of strength can hold or whether the market needs broader participation to sustain the advance.
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Join Traders AgencyOil Prices and the U.S.-Iran Dynamic
Energy markets are adding another layer of complexity to the current trading environment. Both Brent and WTI crude oil rose around 2% on Friday. The USO ETF has surged +11.49% over the past 30 days.
Traders are actively pricing in the prospects of a U.S.-Iran resolution. Adam Crisafulli, founder of Vital Knowledge, noted that "a deal is much more likely than not, but this is already priced in, and the conflict will have stagflationary effects for at least the next few quarters."
Upcoming Fed Transition to Watch
On the macroeconomic front, President Donald Trump is expected to swear in Kevin Warsh as his pick to lead the Federal Reserve during a ceremony on Friday. This leadership transition at the Fed will be a key focus for traders in the weeks ahead.
Our Bottom Line
This S&P 500 weekly winning streak highlights a market that refuses to break down, even in the face of 5.19% 30-year Treasury yields and rising energy costs. The Fear & Greed index sits at 68, reflecting elevated but not euphoric sentiment.
Our research team is focused on two things heading into next week: the tech sector's relative strength and whether yields can stabilize at current levels. If volatility in the bond market calms down, this market has room to run. If not, eight weeks of gains could face a real test.
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Join Traders AgencyKey Takeaways
- The S&P 500 is on pace for its eighth consecutive weekly gain, its longest winning streak since a nine-week run ended in late 2023.
- Despite the streak, the 30-year Treasury yield has climbed above 5.19%, its highest level since before the financial crisis, creating real pressure on equity valuations.
- Early Friday futures showed broad-based strength: S&P 500 +0.18%, Dow futures up 124 points, and Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.27%.
- The Fear and Greed Index sits at 68, signaling elevated sentiment but stopping short of the euphoria that typically precedes sharp reversals.
- The SPY ETF has returned +4.22% over the past 30 days, while DIA's 30-day return of +1.11% shows the Dow lagging the broader market's momentum.
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