Nucor's Q3 2026 Guidance Falls Short of Wall Street Consensus, Shares Dip Alongside Steel Dynamics

Nucor Corporation said on Sept. 17, 2026 that it expects third-quarter earnings of $5.55 to $5.65 per diluted share for the quarter ending Oct. 3, 2026, according to the company's guidance release distributed via PR Newswire. The range sits below the $6.17 per share consensus estimate tracked by MarketBeat, and shares of both Nucor and peer Steel Dynamics fell more than 1.5% in premarket trading, CNBC reported, after each company delivered guidance that came in below FactSet's polled consensus estimates.

What Nucor Said About Segment Drivers

Per the company's release, Nucor expects earnings to rise in both its steel mills and steel products segments while declining in raw materials. The steel mills improvement is attributed to higher average selling prices and stable volumes, partially offset by higher costs of products sold, the company said. Steel products earnings are expected to increase on higher volumes and higher average realized pricing, while raw materials earnings are expected to decline on lower pricing and shipments.

Nucor also flagged a comparison headwind: second-quarter steel mills segment earnings benefited from $130 million in cash refunds tied to prior periods' raw material procurement costs, a benefit the company said it does not expect to repeat in the third quarter. Separately, Nucor said it expects higher corporate and eliminations expense in the third quarter, reflecting the absence of a second-quarter valuation gain on its investment in fusion energy company Helion and intersegment profit eliminations in line with the prior quarter. That second-quarter Helion gain was a non-cash, pre-tax benefit of $61 million, or $0.20 per diluted share, according to the company's disclosures.

Even with the miss against consensus, the guided range would still more than double the $2.63 per diluted share Nucor reported in the third quarter of 2025, based on the company's own year-ago figure cited in the release.

Shares Slip Alongside Steel Dynamics

CNBC's Sept. 18 premarket movers coverage grouped Nucor with Steel Dynamics, reporting that shares of both steel producers fell more than 1.5% after each delivered third-quarter earnings guidance that showed weaker-than-expected results compared with analysts polled by FactSet.

Pricing and Trade Backdrop

The guidance lands against a tightening physical market. Steel Market Update reported on Sept. 15 that its hot-rolled coil average price stood at $1,240 per short ton, up $60 from a month earlier, with cold-rolled coil averaging $1,480, galvanized and galvalume coil each averaging $1,475, and plate averaging $1,425 per short ton. SMU characterized conditions as a supply squeeze, with some market participants calling it the tightest market since 2021, and quoted a Midwest service center source saying, "People are beyond desperate right now... We've got huge OEMs begging for steel, saying they're going to have to shut down lines."

Shipment data tell a more mixed story. The American Iron and Steel Institute reported that U.S. steel mills shipped 8,219,540 net tons in July 2026, up 5.4% from the 7,797,929 net tons shipped in July 2025 but down 3.7% from the 8,536,500 net tons shipped in June 2026. Year-to-date shipments through July were up 5.3% versus the same period in 2025, per AISI. By calculation, the June-to-July decline works out to 316,960 net tons (8,536,500 minus 8,219,540), consistent with AISI's reported 3.7% monthly drop.

Trade policy remains a backdrop factor. On its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings call, Nucor executives said Section 232 tariffs, in place at 50% since June 2025, had cut imports' share of U.S. steel consumption from 25% in early 2025 to 14% by November, and projected imports would stay at or below those levels through 2026, according to a Steel Technology report summarizing that call. Nucor's own guidance release cautions that actual results may vary materially from expectations, citing risks including competitive pressure from imports, U.S. and foreign trade policies affecting steel imports or exports, and prevailing market steel prices and raw material costs.

Capital Returns

Nucor's release also disclosed that the company repurchased approximately 2.03 million shares during the third quarter at an average price of $247.04 per share, and has returned roughly $1.36 billion to stockholders year-to-date through buybacks and dividend payments. The company said it plans to report full third-quarter results after markets close on Monday, Oct. 26, 2026, with a conference call the following morning at 10:00 a.m. Eastern.

Bottom Line

Nucor's guided range implies a sharp year-over-year improvement from the $2.63 per diluted share it posted in the third quarter of 2025, even as the roughly $5.60 midpoint falls short of the $6.17 Wall Street had modeled, per MarketBeat. One interpretation, tied to the company's own disclosures: the sequential comparison is tougher than the headline numbers suggest, because second-quarter results included $130 million in cash refunds on prior periods' raw material procurement costs and a $61 million non-cash Helion valuation benefit ($0.20 per diluted share), neither of which Nucor expects to repeat in the third quarter. Whether the tightening sheet and plate prices reported by Steel Market Update show up as upside when Nucor reports on Oct. 26 will depend on how volumes and costs net out against the tariff-supported import backdrop Nucor executives described on their fourth-quarter 2025 call, according to Steel Technology's summary of that call.