J.B. Hunt Warns Q3 Earnings Will Fall 5%-10% From Q2 as Costs Rise; Shares Drop as Much as 9%-10%

J.B. Hunt Transport Services told investors this week that it now expects earnings to fall 5% to 10% from the second quarter to the third quarter, a rare intra-quarter disclosure that sent shares tumbling in premarket trading. The trucking and logistics company made the comments at the Morgan Stanley Laguna Conference, according to Yahoo Finance, citing TheFly.

What J.B. Hunt Disclosed

According to TradingPedia, J.B. Hunt told investors it now anticipates second-quarter to third-quarter earnings will decline within that 5%-to-10% range. The same figure was reported by Yahoo Finance, which attributed the comments to remarks made at the Morgan Stanley Laguna Conference and sourced them to TheFly.

Shares of J.B. Hunt fell as much as 9% in premarket trading on Wednesday, per Finviz, while Yahoo Finance separately reported a premarket decline of about 10%. Notably, the company's own update did not include a revised earnings-per-share figure or a detailed breakdown of the expected cost increases, according to Finviz.

Both TradingPedia and Finviz reported that J.B. Hunt emphasized it does not normally provide updates on trends within a quarter, underscoring that the disclosure marked a departure from its usual practice. J.B. Hunt is scheduled to report full third-quarter results on Oct. 15, per Yahoo Finance.

Cost Pressures Behind the Warning

Barclays analyst Brandon Oglenski, as cited by TradingPedia, said the guidance is being hurt by increased costs even though the company held "a quite upbeat discussion on current freight market fundamentals that appear to have finally inflected positively from a demand perspective." Oglenski added that higher fuel prices and surcharges are likely playing a significant role in the negative near-term earnings revision, a point reported by both TradingPedia and Finviz.

Yahoo Finance, citing TheFly, reported that Bank of America pointed to a different set of pressures in its own note, saying the pre-announcement reflected rapidly rising drayage costs and delays in fuel-surcharge recovery. BofA estimated these pressures would push third-quarter earnings per share down to roughly $1.72 to $1.81, consistent with the 5%-to-10% sequential decline management flagged.

The cost strain was already visible in the company's second-quarter results. Yahoo Finance reported that purchased transportation costs rose across parts of the business, including a 54% year-over-year increase in the Integrated Capacity Solutions segment, and that J.B. Hunt separately cited higher purchased transportation costs as a headwind in its Truckload business. Those second-quarter results, per the same Yahoo Finance report, showed overall revenue up 19% year over year to $3.50 billion and operating income up 32% year over year to $259.5 million.

Analyst Reaction

Two major brokerages cut price targets after the warning. Barclays lowered its target to $285 from $300 while maintaining an Equal Weight rating, citing higher purchased transportation and driver recruitment costs, according to Yahoo Finance, which sourced the note to TheFly. That is a $15 reduction, or 5% below the prior target (our calculation: (285 − 300) ÷ 300 = −5%).

Bank of America cut its target more sharply, to $302 from $340, while keeping a Buy rating, per Yahoo Finance, citing TheFly. That is a $38 reduction, or about 11.2% below the prior target (our calculation: (302 − 340) ÷ 340 = −11.2%). BofA also lowered its Q3 EPS estimate by 18%, its 2026 estimate by 9% and its 2027 estimate by 6% following the update, according to the same report.

Despite the near-term cost concerns, Yahoo Finance reported that Barclays said management remains bullish on a positive inflection in freight demand, particularly in intermodal. This reported view aligns with TradingPedia's characterization of the disclosure as contrasting an improving demand backdrop against near-term cost pressure.

Context: Freight Demand Versus Costs

The warning arrives after a strong run for J.B. Hunt shares. Yahoo Finance reported that JBHT shares had risen around 39% so far this year before the announcement, compared with a gain of over 12% for the Vanguard Morningstar Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR), which holds the stock. That is a gap of 27 percentage points, meaning the stock's year-to-date gain was roughly 225% larger than the ETF's (our calculation: (39 − 12) ÷ 12 = 225%). The comparison is arithmetic only, but it illustrates, as an interpretation of those two reported figures, how far the stock had run ahead of a broader small-cap value benchmark before this week's pullback.

Analysts covering the name, as reported by TradingPedia and Yahoo Finance, characterized the situation as one where freight demand signals were turning more constructive even as near-term cost inflation, tied to fuel, surcharges, drayage and purchased transportation, was pressuring the bottom line faster than pricing or volume gains could offset it. This is an interpretation offered by covering analysts and reported by the cited outlets, not a company-issued explanation, since J.B. Hunt's own update reportedly did not detail the specific cost drivers.

Bottom Line

J.B. Hunt's unusual mid-quarter warning of a 5%-to-10% sequential earnings decline, paired with a premarket share drop of up to roughly 9%-10%, points to a near-term profitability squeeze from rising costs that multiple sell-side analysts have linked to fuel, surcharges and purchased transportation expenses. Whether the freight demand improvement analysts flagged is enough to offset these pressures will likely become clearer when the company reports full third-quarter results on Oct. 15.