The Fed delivers its decision today, with Powell giving his market-moving press conference later this afternoon.
The consensus on Wall Street is for the Fed to make another 25 basis point cut.
But does that mean the market will rise today? Let’s take a look.
Chart of the Day
This chart shows how the S&P 500 reacts on average both by the day and the final hour of the trading day according to past Fed chairs.
As you can see, Powell has so far the worst record on average – especially for the final hour of Fed day.
This means that if the market takes a significant dip later today, it would not be out of the ordinary for Powell.
The good news? A lot of this data is skewed by the fact that Powell also presided over one of the fastest rate-hiking cycles in history.
Plus, despite everything, he has presided over one of the best bull markets in history.
The takeaway from all this? I explain below.
Insight of the Day
Don’t let short-term fluctuations distract you from the bigger picture.
Remember the sharp August selloff from the yen scare?
It got so much media attention – but it was all ultimately just a distraction.
Those who sold off in a panic during those times are likely kicking themselves right now.
Now, I’m not saying that sharp market crashes can never happen.
But what I am saying is that predicting market crashes always catches our attention because of our loss aversion bias.
Right now, we’re in the middle of a “hidden” pullback.
The pullback could very well end after today…
But it could also keep going a while longer.
If the market takes a sharp dip later today, you can be sure that the bears will be crying “the end of the bull market” again.
Don’t listen to them.
Take advantage of this pullback…
And set yourself up for success in 2025.
If you want to know how – just click here to watch this video of me breaking down one of my top pullback buying strategies.
Customer Story of the Day
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Thanks Ross and Trading Agency, I'm glad to have joined up with you."
Ross Givens
Editor, Stock Surge Daily
