The Cost of Proving Your Point

Hey friend,

The economic calendar is quiet today, but there’s plenty ahead this week.

Tuesday brings consumer confidence, followed by the Fed’s interest-rate decision on Wednesday. Traders will be listening for clues about where rates go next.

Thursday brings the first estimate of third-quarter GDP, showing how fast the economy grew, along with PCE inflation – the Fed’s preferred price gauge.

Together, those reports will give us a fresh look at whether growth is holding up and inflation is cooling.

Let’s see how the markets have been moving.

The Daily Direction

Note: Indexes closed lower to end last week but opened higher this morning – sending the medium-term direction for the S&P 500 as well as the short and long-term direction for the Russell 2000 back upward.

The Daily Nugget

You don’t have to win the argument to make money.

Most traders think a strong view gives them an edge.

But once you’ve told everyone stocks are headed lower, it can be hard to change your mind.

A stock on your watchlist starts rising. Buyers keep showing up.

Instead of taking a fresh look, you search for reasons the rally must fail.

Now you’re trying to prove your point.

The same trap works in reverse.

You call for a rally, then brush off each drop because you don’t want to admit you were wrong.

With major earnings reports and a Fed meeting this week, there will be plenty to argue about.

You don’t have to pick a side and defend it all week.

You can have a view and still change it when the facts change.

Once you’ve made a prediction, it’s easy to start choosing trades that help you prove it.

But you’re free to change your mind. You don’t owe your old forecast another dollar.

Your account won’t get a bonus for winning an argument.

Don’t risk your money just to protect your pride.

The Traders Agency Team