Market Brief
Our flagship daily and weekly analysis. What moved, what matters, and what to watch next.
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Briefs — Page 9
An Extremely Frustrating Market
It’s got to be maddening to be an “S&P 500 only” index investor right now: the S&P has been stuck near its late-October highs, yet we’ve had a nearly unbroken run of net new highs with hundreds of stocks hitting fresh peaks, and about two-thirds of S&P 500 names outperforming the index. That’s rotation—mega-cap tech has cooled off and pulled the cap-weighted benchmark sideways, even while the “average” stock across large-, mid-, and small-caps keeps pushing higher. The key distinction is to not confuse the “stock market” with the “market of stocks”: the index is driven by a few giants, but the real opportunity is often in the broader list of stocks quietly making new highs underneath.
A “Permanent” Market Rotation?
If you’ve been reading this newsletter then you know I’ve been banging the table on the market rotation for quite a while now. One question people have asked me is – how long will this rotation last?
Is the Market Bottom Over?
After days of fairly heavy selling, the S&P 500 posted its best day since November last Friday. Net new highs surged and there were 1,664 more stocks advancing than declining. The question is – was Thursday the near term bottom?
Powerful Value
In yesterday’s newsletter, I highlighted the divergence between the big decline in software stocks and the powerful surge in semiconductors and how said divergences often exist in sideways markets – even if most don’t notice them.
The Death of Software Stocks?
Yesterday I talked about how the Equal-Weight S&P 500 has been outperforming the cap-weighted S&P 500 since November. That outperformance continued yesterday, with the S&P 500 falling nearly 1% – but the Equal-Weight S&P 500 hitting another new high.
The Playbook for a Choppy February
In yesterday’s newsletter, I broke down how the markets did in January… And showed why – with data – we will likely be seeing a choppy month in February.
What to Expect in the Markets for February
I said in yesterday’s newsletter that I was going to talk about how the market did in January. But I put that off till today because I just had to address the massive precious metals rout from Friday.
A $10 Trillion Wipeout
Welcome back to a new trading week. Now that January is over, I was planning to talk about how stocks have performed over the month in today’s newsletter. But I’m moving that to tomorrow’s newsletter… Because today, we need to talk about the $10 trillion wipeout that happened in the precious metals...
How to Sell Before a Massive Drop
To close out the trading week, let’s do something a little different. Instead of zooming out and looking at higher-level market dynamics… Let’s zoom in and tell a quick story about a single stock…
“Independent” Market Opportunities Surging
As expected, the Fed held rates steady yesterday. With Powell noting that current rates were not too restrictive based on current economic conditions. Do I wish he had cut rates? Yes. But looking at how the market has been, I’m not too concerned. Not to mention, Powell will be out soon anyway. And...
They Can’t Get Enough of America
The Fed is almost certainly going to hold rates steady today. If they cut again, it would be a massive (though positive) shock for stocks. Even with them likely holding rates flat though, Powell flapping his lips at the afternoon press conference will still most likely send ripples through the...
The Money is Pouring In
Hey, Ross here. Welcome back. Yesterday, I talked about how we are in a target-rich environment for taking trades. Today, I want to show another chart that supports this thesis because it shows that the money is pouring in.
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