Market Brief
Our flagship daily and weekly analysis. What moved, what matters, and what to watch next.
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Briefs — Page 12
The Market’s Strange Paradox
The market chop continues but the Feb 5 low continues to hold as support. Still, don’t expect this bumpy ride to end anytime soon, especially not with this strange paradox happening right now.
Hidden Areas of Strength
Welcome back. Last week was the worst week for stocks in 2026. So for today, let’s look at what could be in store for the rest of the month… As well as some surprising areas of strength most people are missing.
Season of Volatility
I’ve been talking so much about the current market rotation that it’s easy to forget we’re still in earnings season. And as today’s chart shows, this has been one of the most volatile earnings seasons in recent history.
From Losers to Winners
The sideways chop continues in the major indexes. As I said yesterday – it’s an extremely frustrating market for “S&P 500 or Nasdaq only” investors…
An Extremely Frustrating Market
It’s got to be maddening to be an “S&P 500 only” index investor right now: the S&P has been stuck near its late-October highs, yet we’ve had a nearly unbroken run of net new highs with hundreds of stocks hitting fresh peaks, and about two-thirds of S&P 500 names outperforming the index. That’s rotation—mega-cap tech has cooled off and pulled the cap-weighted benchmark sideways, even while the “average” stock across large-, mid-, and small-caps keeps pushing higher. The key distinction is to not confuse the “stock market” with the “market of stocks”: the index is driven by a few giants, but the real opportunity is often in the broader list of stocks quietly making new highs underneath.
A “Permanent” Market Rotation?
If you’ve been reading this newsletter then you know I’ve been banging the table on the market rotation for quite a while now. One question people have asked me is – how long will this rotation last?
Is the Market Bottom Over?
After days of fairly heavy selling, the S&P 500 posted its best day since November last Friday. Net new highs surged and there were 1,664 more stocks advancing than declining. The question is – was Thursday the near term bottom?
Powerful Value
In yesterday’s newsletter, I highlighted the divergence between the big decline in software stocks and the powerful surge in semiconductors and how said divergences often exist in sideways markets – even if most don’t notice them.
The Death of Software Stocks?
Yesterday I talked about how the Equal-Weight S&P 500 has been outperforming the cap-weighted S&P 500 since November. That outperformance continued yesterday, with the S&P 500 falling nearly 1% – but the Equal-Weight S&P 500 hitting another new high.
The Playbook for a Choppy February
In yesterday’s newsletter, I broke down how the markets did in January… And showed why – with data – we will likely be seeing a choppy month in February.
What to Expect in the Markets for February
I said in yesterday’s newsletter that I was going to talk about how the market did in January. But I put that off till today because I just had to address the massive precious metals rout from Friday.
A $10 Trillion Wipeout
Welcome back to a new trading week. Now that January is over, I was planning to talk about how stocks have performed over the month in today’s newsletter. But I’m moving that to tomorrow’s newsletter… Because today, we need to talk about the $10 trillion wipeout that happened in the precious metals...
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