Hey, Ross here:
The Fed delivers its decision today, with Powell giving his market-moving press conference later this afternoon.
The consensus on Wall Street is for the Fed to make another 25 basis point cut.
But does that mean the market will rise today? Let’s take a look.
Chart of the Day
This chart shows how the S&P 500 reacts on average both by the day and the final hour of the trading day according to past Fed chairs.
As you can see, Powell has so far the worst record on average – especially for the final hour of Fed day.
This means that if the market takes a significant dip later today, it would not be out of the ordinary for Powell.
The good news? A lot of this data is skewed by the fact that Powell also presided over one of the fastest rate-hiking cycles in history.
Plus, despite everything, he has presided over one of the best bull markets in history.
The takeaway from all this? I explain below.
Insight of the Day
Don’t let short-term fluctuations distract you from the bigger picture.
Remember the sharp August selloff from the yen scare?
It got so much media attention – but it was all ultimately just a distraction.
Those who sold off in a panic during those times are likely kicking themselves right now.
Now, I’m not saying that sharp market crashes can never happen.
But what I am saying is that predicting market crashes always catches our attention because of our loss aversion bias.
Right now, we’re in the middle of a “hidden” pullback.
The pullback could very well end after today…
But it could also keep going a while longer.
If the market takes a sharp dip later today, you can be sure that the bears will be crying “the end of the bull market” again.
Don’t listen to them.
Take advantage of this pullback…
And set yourself up for success in 2025.
If you want to know how – just click here to watch this video of me breaking down one of my top pullback buying strategies.
Customer Story of the Day
“I am so pleased that I bought into this program. I have learned so much about the stock market by attending the live updates and education forums that they put on. Hey, I’ve even made a little money and I didn’t even know how to buy a stock before this.
I’ve gotten into several of his programs and have yet to be disappointed. When renewal comes up I’ll be making an educated choice as to which program is best for me to continue.
And the customer service is AWESOME! These guys don’t miss a beat when it comes to reaching out because it looks like you might be struggling and they will then walk you through absolutely anything that you are having a problem with, even if it’s just logging in and they don’t even sound like they are bored and rolling their eyes. LOL. They are just so nice and so patient.
Thanks Ross and Trading Agency, I’m glad to have joined up with you.”
Ross Givens
Editor, Stock Surge Daily
